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Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments.

Tohoku Agricultural Research Center, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Morioka, Iwate, 020-0198, Japan. thase@affrc.go.jp. International Rice Research Institute, DAPO Box, 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines. t.li@irri.org. Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, PO Box 430, The Netherlands. National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210095, China. Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095, China. Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095, China. Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095, China. University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, 32611-0500, USA. United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Big Spring, Texas, 79720, USA. CREA, Research Center for Agriculture and Environment, Bologna, 40128, Italy. INRA, UMR1114 EMMAH, F-84914, Avignon, France. University of Milan, Cassandra lab, Milan, 20133, Italy. International Fertilizer Development Center, Muscle Shoals, Alabama, 35662, USA. Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8604, Japan. CSIRO Agriculture and Food, St Lucia, QLD, 4067, Australia. Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, 110012, India. Cirad, UMR AGAP, F-34398, Montpellier, France. AGAP, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRA, INRIA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France. International Rice Research Institute, DAPO Box, 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines. Ibaraki University, College of Agriculture, Inashiki, Ibaraki, 300-0393, Japan. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing, 100101, P.R. China. Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), FI-00790, Helsinki, Finland. INRA, UMR AGIR, Castanet Tolosan, France. Yangzhou University, Hanjiang, Yangzhou, Jiangsu, 225009, China. Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center, Beaumont, Texas, 77701, USA. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, P.R. China. State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, 210008, China.

Scientific reports. 2017;(1):14858
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Abstract

The CO2 fertilization effect is a major source of uncertainty in crop models for future yield forecasts, but coordinated efforts to determine the mechanisms of this uncertainty have been lacking. Here, we studied causes of uncertainty among 16 crop models in predicting rice yield in response to elevated [CO2] (E-[CO2]) by comparison to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) and chamber experiments. The model ensemble reproduced the experimental results well. However, yield prediction in response to E-[CO2] varied significantly among the rice models. The variation was not random: models that overestimated at one experiment simulated greater yield enhancements at the others. The variation was not associated with model structure or magnitude of photosynthetic response to E-[CO2] but was significantly associated with the predictions of leaf area. This suggests that modelled secondary effects of E-[CO2] on morphological development, primarily leaf area, are the sources of model uncertainty. Rice morphological development is conservative to carbon acquisition. Uncertainty will be reduced by incorporating this conservative nature of the morphological response to E-[CO2] into the models. Nitrogen levels, particularly under limited situations, make the prediction more uncertain. Improving models to account for [CO2] × N interactions is necessary to better evaluate management practices under climate change.